Volume 23, Number 1

Contents - Volume 23, Number 1

Published August 2019
Volume 23, Number 1 (complete issue)

Contents page - Volume 23, Number 1


Research Papers

The low-likelihood challenge: Risk perception and the use of risk modelling for destructive tsunami
policy development in New Zealand local government

Miles H. Crawford, Wendy S. A. Saunders, Emma E. H. Doyle, Graham S. Leonard, & David M. Johnston

Keywords: Tsunami, risk perception, policy development, risk modelling, cognitive bias, local government

The Hikurangi Subduction Interface, located 50 to 100 kilometres off the east coast of New Zealand’s North Island, has the potential to generate the most destructive tsunami New Zealand is likely to encounter over a 1000-year timeframe. Yet, while such a severe risk hangs over the area, the number and detail of tsunami risk management policies do not match this risk. This article presents research on the influence of low-likelihood on perceptions for developing destructive tsunami risk management policy. It explores the thoughts and opinions of natural hazard risk practitioners in regards to tsunami risk management policy, along with the use of risk modelling (RiskScape) for tsunami policy development. Results highlight risk perceptions associated with the low-likelihood of a destructive tsunami, including such an event being perceived as “not happening here” and the development of tsunami risk management policy perceived as sitting in the “too hard basket’”. We discuss how these risk perceptions could be influenced by cognitive biases due to their seemingly illogical nature and how risk modelling can be used as a communication tool to help overcome these perception challenges. We conclude with some recommendations for how we could better match tsunami risk management policy with tsunami risk through further developing local government provisions for risk management, the influence of cognitive biases, risk modelling, and policy flexibility.

Surabaya Resilience Index for potential earthquakes: An institutional perspective

Adjie Pamungkas, Mega Utami Ciptaningrum, Lalu Muhamad Jaelani, & Data Iranata

Keywords: Resilience index, Earthquake, Kendeng Thrust, Institution, Risk Management

The earthquake map released by the Indonesian National Earthquake Board in 2017 categorized Surabaya as prone to earthquakes caused by the Kendeng Thrust. In order to anticipate this new threat, this study assesses Surabaya’s current earthquake and disaster resiliency. Despite being one of Indonesia’s most successful cities, receiving many honours nationally and internationally, Surabaya’s institutions still have a mediocre performance in terms of resiliency, with middle-to-high performance for resilience to general disasters and middle-to-low resilience to potential earthquakes. Surabaya has an average performance compared to 19 other cities around the Asia-Pacific; however, Surabaya scores the lowest for mainstreaming potential for earthquakes in public planning indicating that the city has not anticipated this new threat. Thus, Surabaya needs to enhance its resiliency in the near future due to the unidentified risk, response and emergency-centred actions, and limited public documents considering the risk.


All papers are protected under the Creative Commons attribution as per our copyright notice.

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